The number of jobs affected by the growth of industrial robots is increasing year by year

The number of industrial robots around the world is on the rise, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of employment. In fact, the total global stock of industrial robots is expected to grow by 14% per year, reaching 3 million in 2020. In 2016, data showed that the number of industrial robots in use in regions in the industrial transition phase was 41,000, up from 1,500 in 1993. The vast majority of robots are deployed in manufacturing, especially in the automotive industry. But industrial robots are also increasingly used to produce plastics, chemicals and metals.

The extent of robot use in manufacturing varies from country to country. The levels in the Slovak Republic and Slovenia (more than 93 robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers) are comparable to those in developed economies and higher than in Brazil, China, India and South Africa. The ratio of robots to manufacturing workers is also increasing rapidly in Hungary, Poland, Turkey and Romania. In contrast, countries such as Moldova, Morocco and Serbia still have fewer than two robots per 10,000 workers.

To what extent has the adoption of robots affected employment in Europe? We can see that two different channels may be at work. First, robots can directly replace workers. Second, companies that have increased productivity due to the adoption of robots and automation may also increase their use of robots. In an analysis by two EBRD experts, including 11 transition economies, it was estimated that for every additional robot per 1,000 workers, employment would fall by around seven thousandths (7‰).

　　In areas of transition to industrialization, there are several jobs that should be prepared for. Occupations including food preparation assistants, cleaners, helpers, assemblers, garbage workers, drivers and mobile phone factory operators face the highest risk of automation. Occupations that require a lot of analytical skills and/or a high level of social interaction, such as managers, professionals and senior executives. These occupations least likely to be automated can rest easy in the face of the challenge of industrial robots.